Would a September peer-to-peer campaign cannibalize year-end?
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Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Revenue | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | $3,329,166 | 25% |
| Base Case | $2,929,166 | 50% |
| Conservative | $2,629,166 | 25% |
Expected Value
$2,954,166
$2,629,166 – $3,329,166
Base case assumes current donor retention holds steady at 65%.
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